SRINAGAR — Two peer-reviewed studies published in 2026 have highlighted the serious earthquake risk facing the Kashmir Valley, citing its active faults, accumulated tectonic strain, liquefaction-prone soils and vulnerabilities in the built environment.
A review published in the Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy in January said the Kashmir Valley lies in a seismically active region shaped by the ongoing collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates.
The review, by Waseem Qader, Irfan Maqbool Bhat and Mehran Qurashi, identified a network of active faults in and around the region, including the Himalayan Frontal Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust, Main Central Thrust, Main Mantle Thrust, Kishtwar Fault and Balapur Fault.
The researchers described the region as a seismic gap where strain can accumulate over long periods, raising concerns about the possibility of future high-magnitude earthquakes.
The review examined historical earthquake records along with seismological, geophysical, geological and geodetic data. It noted several destructive earthquakes recorded in Kashmir, including events in 1555, 1669, 1736, 1779, 1784, 1828 and 1885.
The 1885 earthquake struck the Baramulla area. The review also cited the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, which measured 7.6 in magnitude and caused more than 80,000 deaths, around 200,000 injuries and left about 3.5 million people homeless, according to the study.
It further said around 19,000 children reportedly died, mostly because of building collapses.
Statistical analysis cited in the review estimated recurrence intervals for major earthquakes and put the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 or greater within 100 years at about 40 per cent.
The review placed the recurrence interval for an M7.6 earthquake at around 200 years and for an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater at around 380 years, while cautioning that a future high-magnitude event could not be ruled out.
Second study examines seismic hazard
A separate study published in February in Physics and Chemistry of the Earth also examined earthquake hazard in the Kashmir Valley and highlighted the region’s tectonic vulnerability.
The study by Ayaz Mohmood Dar used US Geological Survey earthquake records dating from 1900 along with historical earthquake information.
It identified around 1,000 earthquakes above magnitude 3 since 1905, including about 150 events above magnitude 5. The study found clusters of seismic activity along the NNW and SSE extensions of the Kashmir basin.
The research also examined the Balapur Fault using total magnetic intensity surveys. It identified magnetic minima and linear low-magnetic zones that the researcher associated with fault-related activity.
The study said the possibility of a large-magnitude earthquake could not be ruled out and noted that the Valley’s topography and tectonic setting could generate significant lateral loads on buildings during strong shaking.
Liquefaction adds to risk
Ground conditions are another concern identified in the research.
The review said thick Quaternary lacustrine and fluvio-deltaic sediments occur across parts of the Kashmir Valley and can increase the risk of liquefaction during strong earthquakes.
Srinagar, Baramulla and Kupwara have been identified in cited research as areas with high to very high liquefaction potential.
The review noted that groundwater levels in the Valley are relatively shallow, while saturated loose sediments can amplify earthquake shaking and contribute to ground deformation and foundation failure.
The built environment presents an additional vulnerability. The review said much of the Valley’s urban construction consists of concrete buildings with shallow foundations, while inadequate foundation assessments and weak implementation of seismic design measures remain concerns.
Simulations cited in the review found significant lateral forces acting on typical three-storey institutional and commercial buildings, with lateral loads reaching up to 749 kN in one direction and combined base shears exceeding 11,000 kN in some simulations.
The review also noted that traditional Kashmir construction systems such as Taq and Dhajji Dewari, which use timber-framed masonry and can perform better under lateral earthquake forces, have increasingly been abandoned.
Calls for preparedness
Professor Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, Vice-Chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology and an earth scientist, has also repeatedly warned about Jammu and Kashmir’s vulnerability to a major earthquake and called for greater public preparedness.
“We do not have a culture of disaster preparedness here. We talk very little about this, for whatever reasons. Our politicians, Imams and community leaders do not talk much about this,” he said.
“I think this is a very important issue for us, any disaster. We need to create disaster consciousness in our society,” he added.
Romshoo has argued that earthquake preparedness should not remain confined to government agencies and technical institutions and has called for religious scholars, politicians and community leaders to discuss disaster safety at the grassroots level.
He has specifically urged Imams to use Friday sermons and mosques to educate people about earthquake preparedness and basic safety measures.
A peer-reviewed vulnerability assessment co-authored by Romshoo found that around 98 per cent of Srinagar’s buildings are masonry structures with extremely poor seismic resistance, according to the assessment cited in the supplied material.
The assessment identified downtown Srinagar as particularly vulnerable because of dense construction, limited open spaces and narrow roads.
Romshoo has also warned that schools and hospitals in the region are largely not earthquake-resistant.
“Earthquakes cannot currently be predicted,” he said. “Reducing casualties therefore depends on preparedness measures, including strict implementation of earthquake-resistant building codes, regular public drills and greater disaster awareness.”
Government measures
The Jammu and Kashmir government has also acknowledged the scale of the seismic risk.
Earlier this year, it told the Legislative Assembly that the entire Union Territory had been placed in Seismic Zone VI, the highest risk category, under the newly notified IS 1893 (Part 1):2025. The revised classification treats all districts uniformly without internal gradation.
Structural audits are under way, with more than 11,600 school buildings assessed following the 2025 floods.
The government has also constituted a committee for a comprehensive Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment, while an earthquake early-warning system remains at a nascent stage.
Taken together, the studies and expert assessments point to several interacting sources of earthquake risk in the Valley, including active faults, a long history of seismic activity, accumulated tectonic strain, potentially liquefiable sediments, dense urbanisation and buildings that may be unable to withstand strong lateral shaking.
Researchers and experts have called for stronger seismic design and enforcement of building codes, structural retrofitting, improved hazard assessment, early-warning systems, regular public drills and greater community awareness to reduce potential casualties during a major earthquake.
