SRINAGAR — Jammu and Kashmir is likely to experience a relatively mild and dry winter this year under the influence of El Niño, although one or two major spells of snowfall during the peak winter months cannot be ruled out, Director of the Meteorological Department, Srinagar, Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, said on Monday.
Addressing social media claims that winter may not occur in India this year, Ahmad, as reported by the news agency KNO, said such assertions were not based on science.
“Such claims were unscientific. The winter is a natural seasonal phenomenon that will occur, although its intensity may vary,” he said.
“Winter will definitely come. Sometimes winters are severe and sometimes mild. What we have been seeing for the last few years is a relatively mild winter,” Ahmad added.
He said indications from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) suggest that the latter part of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, particularly the peak winter period, could be somewhat warmer and drier because of the El Niño effect.
Ahmad, however, cautioned that a definitive seasonal forecast could not be made this far in advance because weather conditions are dynamic and can change with shifts in atmospheric patterns.
“If there are one or two good spells during peak winter, especially if the moisture supply is good or a major Western Disturbance occurs, it can be helpful,” he said.
He said Jammu and Kashmir had witnessed a similar pattern in recent years, with prolonged dry periods followed by one or two snowfall spells that were generally weaker than expected.
The MeT director said the region was currently being affected by frequent but feeble Western Disturbances (WDs), which were generally arriving every third or fourth day but producing little significant weather activity.
“These are mostly feeble Western Disturbances. In the mountainous areas of North Kashmir, we may see some light snow or cloudiness, but there has been no major weather activity,” he said.
Ahmad said a strong Western Disturbance, particularly during the beginning or peak of winter, would be important for Jammu and Kashmir.
Ahmad also linked the changing snowfall pattern in the Himalayan region to climate change and rising temperatures, saying warmer conditions were altering the form and timing of precipitation.
Over the past four to five years, Kashmir has not consistently received snowfall during the peak winter period, he said, resulting in shorter-lasting snow cover and longer dry spells.
“Timely snowfall, especially in hilly states like Jammu and Kashmir and other Himalayan regions such as Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, is as important as rainfall during summer,” Ahmad said.
He explained that snowfall during peak winter has a longer-lasting impact because lower temperatures allow snow to remain on the ground and contribute to glacier recharge.
Snowfall later in February or March can also be beneficial, he said, but warmer temperatures can cause it to melt more rapidly.
“Due to rising temperatures, the snow melts quickly. So timely snowfall is very important for the Himalayan region,” he said.
On the current precipitation situation in Jammu and Kashmir, Ahmad said the overall seasonal scenario was near normal despite significant variations between individual months.
He said July recorded 35 per cent excess rainfall, while the early monsoon period also caused considerable losses. August, however, recorded around 25 per cent rainfall deficit.
“Overall, the precipitation scenario for the season is almost normal,” he said.
Ahmad also dismissed claims that February or winter itself would somehow be absent this year, saying such conclusions could not be drawn from seasonal forecasts.
He advised people to remain positive, saying snowfall and rain were still expected even though the overall winter could be milder than normal.
“Let us see what happens. It is very difficult to say from now. These things are very dynamic. There will be snow, God willing, and there will be rain,” he said.
